Juvenile Fillies Turf – 1m (Grade 2)

Pick: Elusive Kate

There is little doubt that this John Gosden trained filly will go off as the favorite to win this important Grade 2 and all things being equal she should do so. Last seen winning the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac over a mile at Longchamp in October, where she made all under jockey, William Buick, this filly is potentially a little bit special.

That win was fourth on the trot and it was also a higher graded race than this, meaning that she is coming down in class and over a distance which she clearly loves. Moreover, Gosden thinks she will improve again as does her new owner, Teruya Yoshida, who only bought the filly last week. Yoshida of course purchased a half share in Danedream, before she went on to win the ‘Arc de Triomphe’ suggesting that the Japanese billionaire knows a thing or two about top class fillies.

There are a two or three others in the field that are worth some scrutiny, particularly the unbeaten Somali Lemonade, currently the 4/1 second favorite. There is also Stephanie’s Kitten, the only other filly to have won at Grade or Group 1 level, plus a third American entry, Stopshoppingmaria who went as the favorite to defeat the highly regarded, My Miss Aurelia in the Frizette Stakes at Belmont Park last month, but went down by over 5 lengths.

These are all good fillies, but on paper they are not quite in the same league as Elusive Kate, who would have to be regarded as a ‘banker’ selection.

Breeders Cup Mile

Pick: Goldikova

It would almost be sacrilege to oppose the legendary filly from claiming her fourth Breeders Cup Mile which is why she is one of the three picks. There is no doubt that the 6 year old is beyond her best, after all she has been seen off three times this season already. Canford Cliffs beat her at Ascot, Immortal Verse beat her at Deauville and Dream Ahead got the better of her at Longchamp last month.

However, there is nothing of that quality in the race this year, which is why she should be good enough to come flying through at the finish to win.

Richard Hannon who trained Canford Cliffs has his rapidly improving Strong Suit entered, who could be Goldikova’s biggest threat, although his draw in stall 11 will do him no favors. On top of that he has yet to win at the highest level which means taking Goldikova on in a race that she has won three times previously will be a very ‘tall order’ for him indeed.

Breeders Cup Classic – 10f (Grade 1)

Pick: So You Think

According to the market only three horses can win this race, with the one-time Kentucky Derby favorite, Uncle Mo on top of the market. This 3 year old has only raced twice since recovering from a serious liver disorder, but on his latest run he looked back to his best and he is also a Breeders Cup course winner, after winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile 12 months ago.

The 4 year old Havret De Grace comes to the race in great form having won her last two races, both at Grade 1 level in great style. She has in fact only been beaten once since this season and that was only by a nose in the Grade 2 Delaware back in July. She came back from that and beat the boys in the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes at Saratoga in September.

Having backed So You Think all season, there is nothing worse than losing faith in a horse who suddenly and inexplicably finds his best run after you have backed something else. That of course is no real reason to support him to win the ‘Classic’ but this Australian bred monster of a horse was hailed a ‘superstar’ after his arrival in at Aidan O’Brien’s Ballydoyle stable at the beginning of the year and he has won three Group 1’s and a Group 3 from seven starts this season.

Yes it is true that Ballydoyle had expected him to win the ‘Arc de Triomphe’ last month but the weights for gender allowance can be blamed for his fourth place behind Danedream, he did finish as the top colt however, and that was no mean feat in a top class field.

It is also true that he may not take to the dirt, but he will be racing over his favorite ten furlong distance, which will surely give him an edge over Uncle Mo in particular. O’Brien has decided that the 5 year old will wear blinkers and was well pleased with his draw in stall 5.

A close run thing but So You Think gets the vote to end his season on what had always been an anticipated high.

Although he has left a little to be desired from a season where many expected him to blow away the best Europe had to offer, the six year old has had to settle for just three Group One wins, a fourth place in the Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp and a second place in the Champions Stakes at Ascot.

There are few who would doubt his ability however to win the Classic and land the richest purse in American horse racing with doubts surrounding his ability to make the switch from Turf to Dirt track.

So You Think will certainly go to the race as one of the favorites but actual favouritism will go to the Todd Pletcher trained Uncle Mo, winner of the Breeders Cup Juvenile 12 months ago and who had been the favourite to win this year’s Kentucky Derby before a set back.

A rare liver disorder ruled Uncle Mo out of the American Triple Crown  picture this year and he was forced to remain in the sidelines to recover. However, a successful return to the winner’s enclosure in the Grade 2 Kelso Handicap at Belmont Park at the beginning of last month along with some excellent work at home since has seen the champion American juvenile back to his best and Pletcher has now become very bullish about his chances; hence the 3/1 (+300)  about him winning this year with both odds compilers in Vegas and Europe seemingly in agreement.

There is in fact a paucity of high profile entries from Europe into the Classic, O’Brien does hold an entry for a second runner in Await The Dawn, but apart from his two, the race appears to be one that America will dominate. In fact, the only ever European winner’s of the race were the Andre Fabre trained Arcangues in 1993 and then Ravens Pass for the John Gosden stable in 2008.

Second favourite in the betting is the Larry Jones trained filly Havre De Grace, who looked in great form when hosing up by more than 8 lengths in the Grade 1 Beldame Invitational Stakes over 9 furlongs at Belmont Park on the 1^st October. It was her second Grade 1 win on the dirt in a month after she also very impressively won the Woodward Stakes against her male rivals, at Saratoga in early September. Jones believes the 4 year old filly has the speed and the class to take on the ‘Classic’, to that end he has decided to ignore the fillies race in order to prove his point. She is currently around the 5/1 (+500) mark to win.

With the unfortunate news that Tizway has been injured and will be retired from racing altogether, the only other entry attracting market support is Flat Out, trained by Charles Dickey. A very consistent type who after being defeated 1¾ lengths by Havre De Grace in the Woodward Stakes in September came back to win the Grade 1 Jockey Cup Gold Cup Stakes over ten furlongs at Belmont Park a month later. In winning that race he had Belmont Stakes winner, Drosselmeyer more than two lengths adrift as well as several other top class horses well beaten. He will of course need to reverse the form with Havre De Grace, but this latest run over the ‘Classic’ distance of ten furlongs, should certainly put him in with a big shout come 5^th November.